By DAVID MARTIN
Research 2000, a polling outfit in Maryland, may want to rethink its approach in Missouri.
A Research 2000 poll conducted in early July showed state Rep. Jeff Harris with a 10-point lead over the nearest rival in the Democratic primary for attorney general. Harris finished a distant third in the August 5 election.
At around the same time of the AG poll, Research 2000 asked 800 likely Missouri voters about Barack Obama and John McCain. The respondents said they favored Obama 48 percent to 43 percent, with 9 percent undecided.
But other polls, conducted before and after Research 2000's, indicate that McCain won't need to spend a lot of time in Joplin over the next seven weeks.
The Web site Five Thirty Eight is tracking polls in an effort to predict what the electoral-college map will look like in November. According to Five Thirty Eight's collating, only Research 2000 gives Missouri much of a chance to turn blue. McCain leads Obama by anywhere from 3 to 10 percentage points in other polls. The most recent poll, conducted by Rasmussan, shows McCain up 5 points on his Democratic rival.
Five Thirty Eight's data sifting puts McCain's chances of winning at Missouri at 88 percent. He's a 99 percent lock to take Kansas, Obama's mother's roots be damned.
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You caught that I might be an elitist under my definition of it, wumble? Good for you! You caught this, and called me on it, even though you implied that my history prevented me from being an elitist. Some could try and spin this into a gaffe and attack you. But, you didn�t make a gaffe�it was a rational line of thought and spinning it would be asinine.
The key here is it shows that you do listen and think rationally; an aspect not shared by Bush, NPR, Hannity, Rove, Pelosi, Obama, McCain, Olbermann, Limbaugh, or any of the other nitwits out there trying to tell us how we ought to think rather than listening to the folks they are supposed to be representing or watch dogging for. But, I believe listening and thinking rationally ARE, or at least WERE qualities of the typical American person. If they weren�t there is no freaking way we would have accomplished what we have in our past history...recent history being an embarrassing exception.
Unfortunately sensationalism has taken the reins and the holier-than-thou tact has become the only thing some folks �get� in their fucked up score keeping. Somehow folks buy into polls proving their view of the world is correct because a majority shares it. What�s worse, many await a crazily spun gaffe because, if properly spun, it would have a high likelihood of altering these polls, even though this clearly proves the polls are baseless on so many fronts.
Somewhere along the line the rational approach has been lost and replaced with a scoreboard mentality. In such a system, how are we going to have any meaningful change? There are not supposed to be two teams competing for �political capital��there is supposed to be a single government that is of the people, by the people and for the people.
So, yes, I am an elitist in that I see our American-ness being abused by both parties with no end in sight and it bothers me immensely. Methinks you see it too looming large behind the infighting, names, and polls.
I just figured I would try to win something in a bet, because I honestly stand to win nothing when Obama or McCain gets elected.
Doesn't designating someone an "elitist" make you, in fact, an elitist? Doesn't this term imply a moral superiority (or perhaps a greater generic "American-ness") on the behalf of the person using it?
It's unfair of me to equate you with the Hannitys and the Roves of the world who use this word to denigrate anyone they disagree with politically. But whether you realize it or not, your kneejerk use of it perpetuates some of the dumbest bullshit in our politics. Please, as you continue to post your ass off on Pitch every day, try to use the words that actually express your opinion instead of the one sthat merely express received opinion.
An elitist, wumble, is someone who professes to know things in a pompous manner with disregard for potentially differing points of view.
Beazley�s commentary on polling is a perfect example of elitist bullshit. In no uncertain terms Beazley claims the polls are skewed because of the 18-30 year olds not having land lines. This insidious comment fails on the grounds that online polls show the same results as the phone polls, and disregard for the presumption that the Internet is full of much younger folk.
I'm touched to learn of your family history, Trevor, but what I'm after you about has nothing to do with your "authenticity" as a real American. Here's what I want to know.
What is an "elitist"?
That's it. Tell me that. If you're going to toss empty signifiers around, please let us know what they mean.
Oh, wumble, you know I lurve you, and would never call you stupid. However, who but an elitist would attend a $28k per plate dinner and listen to Bab S on the same week that the DJIA dropped 1,000 points?
More so, my father was a union diesel truck mechanic and my mother was a secretary (yeah, it was before PC, so that was the term). I grew up in a town where the steel mills closed before I was a teenager and unemployment there is still over 20%. Under your line of thinking, does that mean that I could not be an elitist? Don�t you think it silly to judge someone by what their parents did when the someone has a record from which to directly judge?
If the Democrats are just barely in power, then why did they promise the �first 100 days� shit? If they are just barely in power, and folks like their incumbents, then how are things going to change?
Perhaps what is meant by elitist is Barack Obama calling the agenda of Pelosi and Reid �change�, while America calls out hungry for real change. To which, Barack says, �Let them eat toast�. This explains Palin�s popularity�she is the only outsider.
Anyway, wumble, I am game to place the same bet with you that I offered to gus and online-polls-are-not-polls Beazley.
Beazley: "methinks"? Et tu?
Trevor: You usually seem smarter than the people who say dumbass things like "elitist bullshit." On your off days, though, you read like you're typing with Hannity's cock. What does "elitist" even mean? How can a senator for 26 years whose father commanded the entire Pacific fleet not be an elitist? It's a buzzword insult meant to make conservatives seem pure and salt-of-the-earth and to make liberals seem somehow corrupted by Europe or books or Barbara Streisand. Liberals sneer at working people, it implies, while conservatives ennoble them. But that's all it is, an implication, with no matching truth. It means nothing outside of the echo chamber, so dropping it here means you get called on it.
Also, you should know better than to put too much stock in the low congressional poll numbers. Ignoring the fact that the Democrats are just barely in power, and that anything they attempt is subject to a presidential veto, only the party base voters get truly exercised about the house or senate. Americans hate congress, but they like their incumbents. If I mention that that's stupid, you'll probably call me an "elitist," but I can handle it.
Et tu, Beazley? Want some action?
Filtering the elitist bullshit from your pontification, I'll give you that the stock market will likely affect things. However, for it to turn Obama's way, he is going to have to actually SAY something. Which, I am still willing to bet will either not be attempted (i.e. more teleprompted non-speak), or be conducted in a screwy manner like promising more toasters. Lotsa folks realize that the 9% approved Democrats have been at the helm for quite some time and have NOTHING to show for it...even past those 100 days that were supposed to fix things.
Anyway, why don't I bet you meat and potatoes that McCain wins? Only question is, what would you put up? And it had better be something better than your powder blue Razr.
I would actually feel pretty comfortable betting that whatever the MO & KS outcomes are that the margin is a whole helluvalot closer than anyone's poll numbers are predicting.
In the first place, no one between 18-30 is being included in the poll samples b/c none of us have land line phones and are thus un-poll-able. We're also the big-ass donor base for Obama...so I'd stuff my bragging tongue back into my pie-hole until the exits started coming in, were I a McCainanite.
In the second, none of the aforementioned polls were done AFTER the Lehman Bros/Merril Lynch/AIG boondoggle and it seems awfully likely that people will be voting their pocketbooks this season which of course, would be a disaster for an econ neophyte like Johnny McOldGuy. (esp since he can still be tied to the Keating 5)
Not to say that the president has to have a Nobel Prize in economics...but at least my candidate has the good sense to hire economic advisors with actual credibility.
Methinks that the "meat & potatoes" folks are going to recognize that both their meat and their potatos have been put in dire jeopardy by arrogant republican ideologues...and despite all the empty rhetoric about John's being a "maverick" they might remember that his party is the one who put that meat and those potatoes in such jeopardy.
It might also displease the "meat & potatoes" voters that people like you are cynically counting on their percieved ignorance in order to get your guy elected. Shame on you.
What do you want to bet on that, gus?
Methinks the real truth is Obama is the unqualified one. Sure, lotsa you folks is gonna vote fer 'em, but the real meat and potato folks see what you caint...that Obama-dog won't hunt!
Nah, mccain is peaking, he's had a good run once he picked Crazy McCrazy Ass to be his vp but people will catch on that shes hopelessy unqualified soon.
I always want more information on how these polls are done - are they just asking random people in Missouri? Are they doing it by electorates? Are they asking people in big cities, or just rural areas? A combination? An accurate combination?
I am not one to be a toast hater, especially when it is covered in Cheeze Whiz, but at this point it seems to be getting quite clear that the Biden-promised-singed bread will be off the table before the California polls even close. I suppose it goes to show that while America provides ample opportunity for their citizens to become President, you need to be more than a teleprompted, cheesy, empty, bag of gas.
But, it�s not over. Maybe mecha-Streisand and her $28k per plate non-elitist dinner can save the day?
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