Monday, March 2, 2009

Thigpen finished because he couldn't finish

Posted by David Martin on Mon, Mar 2, 2009 at 7:00 AM

click to enlarge Matt Cassel
  • Matt Cassel

Chiefs GM Scott Pioli traded for 26-year-old quarterback Matt Cassel on Saturday, effectively handing last year's starter, Tyler Thigpen, a clipboard and the league-approved ballcap of his choice.

Cassel's ability to lead an offense lacking Pro Bowl linemen and receivers is unknown. But merely by taking the field and not trying to prove he's ambidextrous, Cassel stands a good chance of bettering Thigpen, who became more flustered the longer games went on.

The lads at Football Outsiders published a fascinating item last week quantifying Thigpen's starts and finishes. Using a statistic called defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), Football Outsiders determined that Thigpen became less effective with each passing quarter -- kind of like Rage Against the Machine's career.

In the first quarters of games in 2008, Thigpen completed 62 percent of his passes and threw five touchdowns. His DVOA in Q1 was 25.1 percent -- not Peyton Manning territory, but playoff-caliber.

But once the first quarter ended, Thigpen got klutzier by the minute. His DVOAs for the second, third and fourth quarters were -6.6 percent, -10.5 percent and -25.2 percent, respectively. Put another way, if Thigpen played like the 2008 version of Chad Pennington at the outset, he was Shaun Hill, Brian Griese and (finally, miserably) Jon Kitna as the game wore on.

As for the new guy, Cassel's DVOA in 2008 was 6.4 percent. He's not Manning or Drew Brees as a passer, in other words. But it's a start. Or, from what the Chiefs have been lacking, a finish.

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