Wednesday, December 9, 2009

Weather wars: Winter storm 1, Dec. 8-9, 2009

Posted by Casey Lyons on Wed, Dec 9, 2009 at 1:00 PM

click to enlarge KMBC's Joel Nichols is this storm's champion predictor
  • KMBC's Joel Nichols is this storm's champion predictor

Every year 'round this time, amateur weather watchers tee-off against their local meteorologists, weather girls and professional Doppler junkies. They criticize everything from the blase "There could be some snow in the metro" to the alarmist, a-snowflake-is-a-blizzard school of thought.

Weather broadcasters are allowed to be wrong -- a lot. (If an MLB umpire had the same accuracy rate, he'd be pilloried post-game in the parking lot.) They just aren't allowed to be vague. All or nothing, baby. Take your shot.

In the first of a series of winter weatherperson watching, The Pitch is proud to announce the most accurate forecast from the local news affiliates, based on yesterday's midday forecast for snow accumulation in the metro, as measured on my deck in midtown.

But first, here are the guesses:

  • KCTV5's Gary Amble: 2-4 inches 
  • KMBC's Joel Nichols (9 a.m. forecast) 1-2 inches; Erin Little 12 p.m. (no prediction)
  • KSHB's Brett Anthony: 1-4 inches
  • WDAF's Mike Thompson: less than 3 inches
A few folks were in the right neighborhood, but this week's win goes to Joel Nichols. Not only did he call it first, he called it right. There was 1.5 inches of snow on my back deck. Brett Anthony and Mike Thompson were in the right range, but no one could touch Nichols' precision.

OK, when's the next storm?

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@ Brad - Fixed. Thanks.

@ Bob - Great idea. Next storm, I'll use the preceding prime-time forecast.

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Posted by Casey Lyons on December 10, 2009 at 1:26 PM

Yeah this article makes no flipping sense.

Your judging a bunch of mid-day weather people and expecting them to have an exact number for your location and to be right on when we all know snow doesn't fall as uniform as you suggest. Lets see you go out there and measure 5 times and get the same measurements.

How about if you want to accurately test someones accuracy you look at the forecast they made the night before the storm, instead of a broadcast only 65 year old soap watchers are seeing!

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Posted by Bob on December 9, 2009 at 6:22 PM

Ummm. Don Harman said 1-2 a week and a half before the storm hit.

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Posted by Spock on December 9, 2009 at 2:10 PM

That should probably be Erin Little, not Erin Nichols unless Joel brought in his wife for some forecasting.

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Posted by Brad Biles on December 9, 2009 at 2:07 PM

What about Katie Horner and her prediction of thirteen feet of snowflakes the size of Honda Civics and the miraculous F5 snow tornado (snonado)? Better get our emergency kits and bike helmets!

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Posted by Caroline on December 9, 2009 at 1:39 PM
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