The 2010 Kansas City Royals will finish in last place in the American League Central, according to a forecasting system.
Baseball Prospectus, which is like a cross between Bill Simmons and the RAND Corporation, has developed a player projection system called PECOTA. The system predicts the performance of hitters and pitchers based on their previous work, body type, injury history and what comparable players have done as they aged. (Make propeller-head jokes if you want, but I've seen BP's annual player guide in the office of an American League general manager.)
The system has taken a look at the Royals roster and shrugged. PECOTA projects KC to complete a 74-88 record, which would improve on the 2009 season but is still not still very good.
PECOTA envisions that the '10 Royals will stink at run prevention. The
system doesn't like the team's defense and the cast of pitchers apart from Zack Greinke, Gil Meche and Joakim Soria.
PECOTA (like most BP content, it's hidden behind a subscription wall) thinks Billy Butler will be the team's best hitter, projecting a .297 batting average and 23 home runs. New guy Rick Ankiel is expected to hit .257 with 21 home runs.
Any strides a healthy Alex Gordon makes will be undone by the regularity with which Scott Podsednik (.286, 5 HRs) and Jose Guillen (.269, 12) play.
The good news is that the Royals' division looks compressed. PECOTA likes the Minnesota Twins to finish first in the AL Central but with a record not much better than .500.
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