Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Stats guys don't know what to make of 2011 Chiefs

Posted by David Martin on Tue, Aug 30, 2011 at 1:00 PM

Chiefs perplex big computer.
  • Chiefs perplex big computer.
Football Outsiders takes an objective look at the NFL. The analysts who contribute to the website and yearly almanac break down every single play of the season in an attempt to understand offensive players' true value. It's the Bill James Baseball Abstract in thigh pads.

Smart guys that they are, the Outsiders are unsure of what to make of the 2011 Chiefs. When the analysts fed Kansas City's numbers into the STRAM 6000*, the computer began to smoke and wheeze. This is from the 2011 almanac:

When we crunch the numbers and run our 10,000 season simulations, the Football Outsiders supercomputer spits out two basic types of results. One is each team's mean projection, which we present at the beginning of each chapter. The other thing we get from the supercomputer is the standard deviation associated with each team's mean projection. We also present this at the beginning of the chapter, albeit translated into the form of a probability associated with a given range of win totals. This year, Kansas City ended up with the largest standard deviation of the 32 projections, meaning that our model is more uncertain about the fate of the 2011 Chiefs than it is about any other team.
Loosely translated, fans shouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs win or lose 10 games. In any case, head coach Todd Haley is going to get in someone's face when a TV camera is trained on him.

In other Arrowhead-related news, one local man is making a reasonable request. He wants fans to sing the words "home of the brave" (not "Chiefs") when the national anthem is performed at the September 11 opener against Buffalo. Do it for America, guys.

Hat tips: Deadpsin, KSHB Channel 41

* Not the machine's actual name


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Gary you are a dumb@$$ for assuming everyone at a Chiefs game that sings home of the Chiefs is drunk and not a patriot.

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Posted by sarge on 08/30/2011 at 6:07 PM

The Jackson County Prosecutor's Office today filed charges against the Chiefs' front office. Indictment particulars included 23 counts of quarterback endangerment in last week's game. Developing.

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Posted by Hyperblogal on 08/30/2011 at 3:58 PM

Yes please don't discrace all Veterans, Servicemen and Women, and all other Americans by drunkenly shouting home of the chiefs. Please. It's home of the BRAVE.

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Posted by gary on 08/30/2011 at 2:46 PM
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